Axioms

Things we hold to be true. These don't change with markets, models, or moods. These are the foundations that everything is built on.

On Reality

These describe truths about the world that do not change.

Time Passes

Markets evolve. Alpha decays. Build systems that benefit from the passage of time.

Every strategy has an expiration date. The only question is whether your system can discover the next one before the current one stops working.

Adversity is an Opportunity

Events are neither positive nor negative. Meaning comes from interpretation.

The same circumstance that paralyzes one person becomes opportunity for another.

Advantage belongs to those who can act clearly when others cannot.

Intelligence is Cheap

Ideas are no longer the bottleneck.

The constraint is validation, governance, and deployment.

AI expands the search space. Statistics determine what survives.

Local Competition Creates Global Order

Markets are ecosystems.

Millions of independent decisions interact to produce global order.

Emergent structure arises from competition, not coordination.

The Further You Look, The Less Certain You Can Be

Short horizons reward precision. Long horizons require humility.

Forecasts degrade as distance increases.

Robust systems acknowledge uncertainty rather than pretending to eliminate it.

On Systems

These explain how your firm builds advantage.

Architecture Matters

Architecture matters more than any individual signal.

A well-designed system compounds knowledge over time.

The goal is not to discover one good model. The goal is to build a process that never stops discovering.

Learning Speed Wins

Markets reward learning speed, not confidence.

The advantage goes to whoever can discover, validate, and deploy signals faster than they decay.

Process is the Product

Outcomes fluctuate. Processes compound.

If the research process is correct, the results will follow over time.

Reality Wins

Markets do not care about narratives.

Statistical evidence outranks elegant stories.

Numbers first. Story second.

You Are What You Measure

Measurement shapes behavior.

Organizations become what their metrics reward.

In investing, performance is the only scoreboard that matters.

Incentives Drive Everything

Behavior follows incentives.

If you want different outcomes, change the incentives.

The most powerful systems align incentives so progress becomes inevitable.

On Responsibility

These describe how people must operate inside the system.

People Make Decisions

Systems assist decisions. They do not remove responsibility.

Anything you sign off on reflects your judgment and your character.

Accountability cannot be delegated.

You're Always On

Character is consistent.

How someone behaves in small moments reveals how they will behave in large ones.

Discipline is structural, not situational.

Responsibility Creates Authority

Responsibility is earned by voluntarily carrying downside.

Those willing to bear risk gain the right to make decisions.

Clarity is Leverage

Clear thinking compounds.

The ability to reduce complex systems to first principles is the highest leverage skill in research.

Build What Compounds

The most durable advantages come from systems that improve themselves.

Build those, and everything else follows.